How it works

Chance and forecasts

Two things are random; everything else repeats exactly.

• Random: each day's death roll, and grey mould's first infection.
• Repeatable: water, temperature, growth and health.
• Before sealing, the forecast runs the jar several ways and counts what should be alive in a year.

Stats

Year survival

e^-(sum of the year's hazards)

See it in a jar